(Note: Updated July 2, 2007 - below just for comparison I'll put a couple of Matt's passes that were batted down in the 2005 Arizona State game for comparision to JDB's.)
Original Post:
Okay the title here is a little bit of a joke. In an earlier post I took a close look at the dozen or so batted down passes that John David Booty had during the 2006 season. Since two them occurred at high profile moments during the season they became embedded in the mind of the public and suddenly I started reading and hearing all about JDB's "batted down pass problem". The human mind in general is quick to jump to conclusions rather than examine the facts and attempt to get at root causes. I read or heard all sorts of interesting theories from fans speculating that JDB really was only six foot tall and not six foot three as listed in the media guide or that he telegraphed his throws, or he had a blind spot to his left. I personally don't buy into any of those theories though.
I did a quick sample of 100 of Matt Leinart's passes in 2003 and found that 2 of them (2%) were batted down in the games I looked at. In comparison JDB had about 2.75% batted down so it is perhaps not that big of a difference overall. In the Auburn game from 2003 which I recently re-watched but did not include in the Leinart sample he had one pass batted down by an Auburn linebacker but it was past the line of scrimmage on a pass thrown too far behind the receiver...I would not include it as an example since it is a different type of mistake in execution and not one batted down at the line of scrimmage.
The Auburn game did show a good example of something else however later in the game. In the fourth quarter Leinart completed a short 3 step drop pass to Mike Williams on a quick little in route on a 2nd and 13 play. This is almost identical to the type that was batted down in 2006 on several occasions. Here is the sequence in four images. The pictures are fuzzy due to the quality of the telecast and conversion of the file.
| Image 1 |
Image 2 |
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| Image
3 |
Image
4 |
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This is a nice example of a pass completed with no problem for what was eventually about a 10 yard gain to Mike Williams. You can assume that Auburn has to be considering pass due to the down and distance situation. Also you would think they'd key on the Trojan's best WR Mike Williams split left on the play. In Image 1 you can see Auburn lined up in a 4-3 alignment with the defensive backs playing off. It might have been a loose form of Cover 2 or a quarters form of Cover 4 with zone underneath by the linebackers. With the narrow angle we can't really tell. Anyway in Image 2 Leinart takes a quick three step drop and looks to his left the whole way. On the short routes like this there is no "looking off" of the defender. It is a short quick route that is predicated upon timing (1.2 seconds for example). If the pass is not open the QB then goes onto another receiver. Otherwise the pass goes to the first read on the play.
In Image 3 Leinart has made up his mind and you can see there is a wide lane open for him to throw the ball. Someone with much better video and technology would have to check but I'm not sure that six foot five inch Matt Leinart has all that much higher a release point than six foot three inch John David Booty? From this angle we really can't tell and frankly I don't think the two inch height differential is what is important on plays like this one. What is critical is that the passing lane be open as the ball is thrown through a pretty narrow window. You'll notice there is plenty of room to throw the ball in this instance and no one from Auburn has their arms up on the play to attempt to block the pass. Take a good look at the batted down passes in the John David Booty example and you should see a pretty big difference.
In Image 4 the only person that could have really blocked the ball is the defensive end of Auburn. It appears that USC used some form of slide protection to the right on this play and this left Herschel Dennis to block the defender off the left end. In contrast to the freshmen running backs in 2006 Herschel does a nice job here of getting down on his defender and knocking him off his feet. At the end of the play the Auburn DE is fully down on the ground after a perfect chop block by Dennis.
This is only one picture so you really can not extrapolate too much from this one example. It do believe however that the responsibility for batted down balls on pass plays resides as much with the offensive lineman and the blocking of the running backs as it does with the quarterback. At a minimum it is a shared responsibility. I think there are several factors at work here and they are difficult to untangle from my limited viewing angle. #1 I suspect the defensive lineman in the Pac 10 at least have been taught really well to mimic USC's defensive line technique and to keep their arms up during plays like this one. #2 The issue of offensive line protection and style of protection (fan protection, versus slide protection, versus chop blocks, etc.) is critical as well to the success of any pass play. Fans tend to take it for granted but the QB has to have time to complete the throw and he also needs a lane to pass through. The lanes might well have been bigger in 2003-2005 due to superior blocking. #3 The blocking technique of the individual offensive line personnel and the running back matters as well. Freshman running backs are notoriously poor at picking up the blitz and pass blocking. Herschel Dennis is much better at this than the young running backs were in 2006. I expect this area will improve in 2007 just due to the probable availability of Herschel Dennis and the development of the other younger players. #4 This particular short pass play has been a staple of the play book for USC for half a dozen years now. It is a text book play that every team has for situations like this and there is no reason to eliminate it. With repetition however comes some element of predictability and I'd wager that the defenses are looking out for it better than four years ago. Anyway, I'll keep track in 2007 again and take a closer look at the batted down passes and see what we can discern.
Edit Note: Updated with pictures of other games on July 2, 2007:
2005 Arizona State Game
Matt Leinart Batted Down Example 1
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| 1. Leinart looks left for
WR. |
2. WR stops on a quick
hitch type route. |
3. Pass batted down by ASU
defender reading the play. |
Matt Leinart Example 2 (same game)
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| 1. Overall view of the
formation. |
2. View from behind
on this play. Pass pattern appeared to be a slant route over the
middle |
3. Pass is batted down by
a leaping ASU defender. The same player DT #1 Hill batts down JDB's
pass in 2006 in a similar situation. |
Anyway I have a strong feeling that if you check all of Leinart's passes in 2003-2005 we'd find a pretty consistent 2% or so batted down pass rate per season. This is my best guess based upon a sample size that is now closer to 150 passes over two different seasons now. JDB's 2.75% figure in 2006 probably was not that abnormal in hindsight. That does not make the ones that were batted down any less painful due to the timing of the play. None the less the causes still appear to have to do more with items I mentioned in the previous posts and not just the QB.