Two weeks ago I read a comment by John David Booty in the L.A. Times after the Shotgun formation debuted in practice for the USC offense. When asked by Gary Klein if utilizing the Shotgun formation had anything to do with batted down passes at the line of scrimmage John David Booty replied something along the lines of, “No not really. I only had about a half dozen passes batted down last year with two at really unfortunately key times that stuck out like a sore thumb”. When I read the comment I initially thought it was perhaps either a tad defensive or perhaps slightly in denial on Booty’s part.

I made a mental note to go back and do some digging in my game file notes to see if I could figure out the actual number of batted passes. I finally got around to the task and by my count at least I actually have JDB with closer to 12 batted balls at the line of scrimmage in 2006. Some games had actually no batted balls at all and once he had two for example but the average was just under one per game (assuming my notes are correct). Since he threw 436 passes in 2006 this means that 12/436 or 2.75% of his passes were tipped or batted down at the line of scrimmage.

In order to know if this is a “problem” in reality it needs to be measured against a standard or basis for comparison. I imagine the USC coaching staff has this level of information tracked somewhere. I unfortunately could only go back to three 2003 games I have on tape where Matt Leinart started as a sophomore. In order to get a rough sense of how many passes Leinart had batted down I watched those offensive series for comparison. When I got to 100 passes I stopped and at that point Leinart had only 2 batted down passes which satisfied my curiosity. So with a smaller sample size Leinart had 2% batted passes versus Booty’s 2.75% drawn from a larger sample size…

I think it is important to remember that batted balls however are just a subset of incomplete passes and need to be looked at in context of the bigger picture. Here is an attempt at framing the comparison with what limited data I could study.

Overall as you can see in 2003 Leinart completed 255 passes out of 402 attempts for 63.43% completion in 2003 and had 2.24% interceptions. For comparison JDB completed 269 passes out of 436 attempts for 61.70% and had a 2.06% interception rate according to the NCAA. Leinart however did throw for quite a few more yards and TD’s. Back in 2002 Carson Palmer completed 309 passes out of 489 attempts for 63.19% completions and 2.04% on interceptions. I don’t know what the number would be for Carson Palmer though on batted balls at the LOS. My guess is that it would be closer to ML’s number than to JDB’s…but that is just speculation. Also the last column is my estimate of what percentage of opponents passes were batted down by the Trojan defense in 2006.

So does Booty have a “batted ball problem”? Well, I think the answer depends upon the point of view. The answer is slightly yes (albeit a pretty small problem) if you only compare the tip of the iceberg numbers (batted down %, and completion %) versus Leinart. Or if you narrowly just focus in on the two times it really mattered (UCLA and Oregon State games) then it was a problem.

The answer is probably “no” however when you look at it from the overall broader statistical perspective and historical data in comparison to Leinart and Palmer. I also have a nagging suspicion that there were fewer QB roll out plays in 2006 and this would affect the data as well. Batted balls tend to happen when the QB sits in the pocket. If indeed Booty had more pocket passes than Leinart then all things equal his percentage of batted down passes might actually be the same as Leinart…Since I don’t have that level of data tracked for 2003 I can’t really tell.

For closer study here is a table of the 12 batted balls that I could find by JDB in 2006. It turns up a few interesting things of note.

For starters it does appear that more of the batted down passes occur when he throws the quick slant route to the left. Assuming there was an equal number of passes right left and middle this might indicate a minor problem, tendency by the offense, or it just might be common to all right handed quarterbacks.

The second interesting thing of note is that there were batted balls in the first 7 games of the year and then they disappeared for three games. Most of the batted balls in the first seven games were knocked down by defensive lineman which is what I’d normally expect.

For a three game period against Stanford, Oregon, and Cal my notes then showed no batted down passes at all. Then there were four more again in the final three games to finish out the year. All of the latter four however came against linebackers who were blitzing on the play and not defensive lineman. This may indicate some improvement by the squad overall.

In reality I am not so sure if JDB’s batted down balls “problem” isn’t more of a symptom than a Booty problem? After all what is the defender’s hand doing free up in the air? Part of the responsibility for blocked passes lies with the offensive line, tight ends, or running backs picking up linebackers at the line of scrimmage. Just like sacks are sometimes the QB’s fault and the offensive lineman’s batted balls are sometimes the fault of blockers and not the QB. At a minimum there is certainly some joint responsibility on the issue.

This next one was batted down by DE #9 Broadus of Washington State. It was a short slant route left as well. This time Sam Baker was the offensive lineman on the player. Somehow Broadus was able to get his left hand up despite being engaged by Baker. I think we have to give some proper credit for a good play by the defender on this one.

Here is the final batted down pass play picture that I clipped from the Rose Bowl against Michigan. This one was a short pass play to the right for a change. The offensive lineman all took care of their respective defenders. The Michigan linebacker #2 Shawn Crable was coming on a blitz however and was picked up by freshman running back C.J. Gable. Crable was able to watch the play unfold and time his leap to knock down the pass. This one again I have to wonder if the root cause is not more with the blocking technique than it is with the QB throw? The defender no doubt deserves credit as well.

Here is a short video clip of nine of the batted passes and some nice replay angles. (I can’t access the other ones which are at home at this moment and not on my over crowded laptop hard drive). I suspect if you ask the coaching staff that about half of the batted down passes were directly on the QB and the other half were probably on the lineman, tight end or running back due to the way they blocked the defender on the play. In practice the coaches work on small techniques regarding use of the hands and it would not surprise me to learn if this was something they drill upon that most fans just don’t see or appreciate. Lineman also work on footwork every day in order to engage the defender aggressively and effectively. Fans tend to talk about play calling. Coaches work on technique and execution.

Video Clip of 9 Batted Passes

Anyway this is just one more small thing to keep an eye on 2007. A mere one or two fewer batted down passes in 2006 and USC might have had a date with Ohio State in the BCS championship game instead of Florida. Of such small details championships are often decided. I’ll keep track again in 2007 for better comparison.