THE 2007 TROJANS

"We don't make predictions, but if we can maintain the high level of competitiveness, intensity and work ethic that is the foundation of our program, then we can set ourselves up for some good things in the 2007 season. We have the nucleus of a very strong, successful team.

"If this past spring's practice is any indication, we have the makings of a very good football team. The spirit that we needed to recapture the work ethic and competitiveness on our practice field was present from the first day. Once fall practice starts, the competition will really increase with the newcomers and those players coming back from injuries.

"We are a very athletic team with a lot of speed. We have enough experience in a number of areas to give us a chance to perform at a high level."

THE OFFENSE

"We expect to have a balanced attack on offense in 2007. To do that, we need to improve the running game and get it to where it was in 2005 (when USC averaged 260.0 on the ground). We have the personnel to have that kind of offense, and with some hard work I anticipate we'll be productive offensively."

TFA Notes: No surprise that Pete Carroll favors a balanced attack. He knows from both the NFL and College game that teams that can only pass or run will not win a championship. Teams that have a higher degree of balance in terms of capability to attack are harder to defend against.  Here are some stats about how one sided teams have not done so well in the past few years and how balanced the BCS participants have been. The average BCS team has rushed for 185 yards and passed for 248 yards. USC's totals are noted below for comparison.

The rush attack as I have pointed out in the past was the weak spot in the USC offense last year. The pass offense ranked 14th in the NCAA but the rush attack only produced 128 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry and ranked 68th. Here are some trend charts for the run game the past few years.  Pete mentions getting back to the 2005 level but personally I think something closer to the 2004 level of 178 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry is more realistic. Oddly that is just about what the Trojans were averaging the first 3 games of 2006 until the 3rd fullback went down to injury.

THE DEFENSE

"We expect great things from our defense in 2007. It should be faster, bigger, stronger, tougher, smarter and deeper than last year. We have a lot of talented, experienced players coming back. This should really be the strength of our team. We'll be able to do a lot more things scheme-wise with these guys than last year because they're smarter now and can handle it. The competition for playing time will be on the whole season and the most important time will be during practice when the players try to prove they're worthy of playing.

"One of our areas of emphasis, though, will be getting more turnovers. We need to hawk the ball better than we did last year. That will be a big indicator as to how well our defense does."

TFA Notes:  No surprise here either that Pete Carroll is counting on the defense to help carry the load for the squad. The 2002-2004 teams all featured top ranked defenses. However the 2005 unit was the worst of the Pete Carroll era. 2006 took a step back in the right direction but was still not a top 10 performing unit overall.

Also as I have charted as well there was a big drop off turnovers produced by the Trojan defense in 2006.  The Trojans have been near the top of the NCAA in this dimension since Pete Carroll arrived. This drop off hurt USC more than most fans probably realize. There were 20 fewer turnovers produced in 2006 than in 2003 for example. That equates to 20 fewer drives or about one and three quarters of a full game of drives over the course of a season. I'd be disappointed if this area did not return to previous levels in 2007.

Another way of looking at the turnover deficit more clearly is to express it in total amount instead of turnover margin advantage. The figure for the total difference and trend is as follows when broken up into fumbles and interceptions.

THE SPECIAL TEAMS

"Special teams is an area where we're looking to be special, not average. We need to increase our productivity in every phase of special teams in 2007. We have that ability. C.J. Gable showed he's a legitimate kickoff returner and I expect he'll get some help from some of the incoming players. Desmond Reed proved to be a capable, sure-handed punt returner. Greg Woidneck did a solid job in his first year as the punter, and now he needs to build on that. Unfortunately, with the tragic death of Mario Danelo, our kick scoring ability will be severely challenged. We'll look to David Buehler to take over the kicking duties and, based on his showing in spring practice, we should be in good shape. But he might be challenged by some incoming walk-ons."

TFA Notes: Special teams play is hard to measure but a key part of the game. USC only ranked 83rd in net punting in 2006 at 33.7 net yards per kick. This cost the Trojans about 10 yards per kick compared to the previous era with Tom Malone. C.J. Gable however did a nice job with kick off returns and USC ranked 16th in the NCAA. Punt returns were another matter as USC only ranked 100th in the nation at 6.19 yards per return. 

Punt return defense for USC was not a strong point for USC last season. The squad only ranked 52nd in the NCAA and allowed 8.11 yards per return. One TD was given up to Oregon State as well at a key point in the loss to the Beavers. Kick return defense was somewhat better and ranked 29th in the nation.

The kicking game will be a question mark for USC in 2007 with the tragic loss of Mario Danelo.  Special teams defense could be an area of strength for USC given all the talent and depth the Trojans will possess in 2007. However that has not been the case overall during the Pete Carroll era.

RETURNING TROJANS

USC returns 18 starters (7 on offense and 10 on defense, plus the punter) from 2006. In all, 72 squadmen are back from last year, including 55 who saw playing time. All but 3 of those 55 were lettermen, while 34 were on USC's season-ending 2-deep. On the roster are 30 Trojans who have started at least once in their career. Joining them in 2007 will be 20 new scholarship players, including 2 who enrolled at USC this past spring and participated in spring practice. That class was named No. 1 in the nation by some publications.

More complete notes and statistics are available here from USC.