| 2007 Game
8: USC vs. Oregon
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Offense Notes Date - October 27, 2007 Location - Eugene, Oregon Result: USC 17 - Oregon 24 I really thought that USC was going to win this game. After Notre Dame I was hoping that the Trojans had turned the corner and this week would start off the stretch drive of final games in a positive fashion. My keys going into the game for USC (which were not exactly rocket science) included 1) avoiding turnovers and penalties, 2) stopping the Oregon run game and making the Ducks more one dimensional, and 3) scoring early to help take the Autzen crowd noise out of the game. In the second half USC's adjustments on defense did limit the Ducks attack more effectively but it didn't matter. Too many mistakes were made in the first half that cost the Trojan's points and the turnovers in the second half shut the door on any comeback attempt. How USC Scored
USC did not produce its average 24 points per game in long field scores or even score 24 points total for the game for that matter. USC failed to convert on several key opportunities early in the game and a costly penalty wiped out another score. Twice USC was able to recover Oregon fumbles on the short side of the field in the first half including the first drive of the game. However USC only was able to come away with 3 points as a result of these two opportunities. A holding penalty later on wiped out a big Joe McKnight run for touchdown that would have been a long field scoring drive. To add insult to injury USC also fumbled the ball on its own 16 yard line and handed the Ducks an easy 7 points. Change the result of any of these 3 sequences and the result would have been different. (Would have, could have, should have...etc.) Since there is no point in updating the long field scoring drive chart this week I'll start by highlight last weeks chart again showing the current Trojan scoring output and offensive turnovers. Once again USC turned the ball over three times and this contributed to the lowest point total of the season. Until the current group of players learn to take care of the ball better the Trojan's misfortune will continue I suspect. The team now ranks just 90th in the nation in Turnover Margin. Against weaker competition USC can get away with several turnovers per game. Against better Pac-10 teams especially on the road it is almost a sure recipe for loss. When was the last time USC ranked this low in turnover margin? It was back in 2000 when the team finished 113th in the nation in this metric and finished with 5 Wins and 7 Losses.  Here are some other key stats worth noting that I compile after each game for review. Key Stats Check
USC Overall Offensive Stats
Total yardage fell off in this game again as did the average per play. USC failed to gain much yardage in the first half and then in the 4th quarter generated some yardage when Oregon started conceding certain throws and playing more prevent style of defense. YTD USC is now averaging 427.6 yards overall but it has been somewhat inconsistent especially since the starting QB John David Booty went down to injury. Yards per play has followed the same trend.  Passing Game The passing game was largely ineffective in the game until the final two drives in the 4th quarter. On the last two drives the Trojans gained 120 of their 277 total passing yards. For the game Mark Sanchez was a respectable 26 of 41 for 277 and 2 TD's. However there were also 2 interceptions and the reality that half the passing yards came in the 4th quarter when Oregon probably went into more of a zone defense. Year to date here is the passing yards, completion percentage, YPA, and YPC by game. As you can see there is not a ton of difference statistically now after 3 games where Sanchez now has over hundred game passes under his belt versus the rest of the year.   If you are interested in a comparison of JDB's first three games in 2006, his first 5 games in 2007, and Mark Sanchez's first three games here is how it shapes up overall (see table below). For comparison I also put in the first three games of Matt Leinart's 2003 season as well as Carson Palmer in 2000. Carson did of course play before that but I think the ones below were from the first real stretch where he started and had the majority of the throws. If you want more of the details game by game click here for that file. The numbers below simply represent averages after three games. Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer I thought threw better deep balls early in their career and their YPC is higher. Take out Booty's Stanford game with the fractured finger and his interception % is the same as was back at the end of 2006 or about Matt Leinart's level. Carson Palmer had to deal with more sacks back in 2000 with right at 3 per game to start off that year. Both YPA for YPC for Booty and Sanchez are down in comparison to Leinart and Palmer. Part of that might be the type of passes thrown (although it should average out after three games and 100 throws) and also it may be wide receiver, or opponent defense related as well. Overall there is more similarity than difference in the numbers but you can't always tell a lot by a QB's first three games. The question is how much they learn and improve week by week from their mistakes. Below I'll post pictures of the two TD plays as well as the 2 interceptions in the Oregon game for USC.
*Long refers to the average length of the long pass completed in those games. I could not easily obtain that metric for 2000 Mark Sanchez TD Plays to Patrick Turner and David Ausberry
On the negative side here were the two interceptions that helped close the door in the second half. Mark Sanchez Interceptions
Overall 9 pass plays of greater than or equal to 15 yards were completed versus Oregon however five of these were in the final two drives. Patrick Turner had a nice game catching 7 passes for 107 yards, and Vidal Hazelton also caught 8 passes for 88 yards to lead the receivers. Fred Davis had only one catch for 11 yards but it was not for lack of effort in trying to get him the ball. Six passes were thrown to Davis including the first play of the game. Another was attempted to Anthony McCoy. Oregon seemed to defend the TE passes really well as USC was only 1 for 7 on those plays with an interception. I'll attempt to look at that more closely in the defense notes later this week. Here is the histogram for USC's completed pass plays in the game.  I'll be curious to learn John David Booty's status this week and hear how well he is able to throw in practice. Assuming he is healthy I imagine the coaches will return him to starting duties but Mark Sanchez has played fairly well and no doubt is the person most likely to lead the Trojans next season. Mitch Mustain will have a hard time unseating him but it should be a good competition next year. Running Game I had expected USC to be able to run the game on Oregon. Actually I was fairly disappointed on the first play of the game when USC did not run right at them to test the Ducks and establish a dominant presence on the line of scrimmage. Instead USC took at shot at the end zone to Fred Davis. USC has done well in games when the offensive line gets in a groove and takes control of the line early on. The offensive struggles (Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon) in particular have come in games where USC did not get the ground game working effectively. Of course the totals would have been better this game if the 64 yard McKnight run for touchdown had not been called back due to a holding penalty.  The yards per carry trend mirrors that of the total rushing yards graph. To get a better sense of the distribution of the runs it is more helpful to put them in a histogram for viewing. The majority of the USC runs were in the 2 to 4 yard gain area. Chauncey Washington had a couple in the 7-8 yard range and Joe McKnight had one run for 11 yards. Otherwise the Ducks effectively shut down the USC rushing attack which is of major concern. Next week USC faced Oregon State which now has the #1 rush defense in the nation and also shut down the USC rushing attack last season.  Here was the failed 4th and 1 play early in the game. I never like running sideways on 4th and short yardage plays unless the offensive line is fairly weak. This one came on an empty backfield play so I suppose USC thought they could catch the Ducks off guard or looking for pass. Maybe it was an intended change of pace from the usual QB sneak...A lot of high school teams and spread teams in college are running plays like this these days. Double Wing formation teams use it with a winged back, spread teams usually do it with a slot receiver coming in motion and often call it "Jet Sweep". The idea is to put your fastest player in motion hand him the ball quickly and get him around the end before the defense can react. Normally it is a good play since in reality only the players on the end of the line towards the run play need to be effectively blocked since the back side can not respond in time. Unfortunately Oregon was not caught off guard and the play lost a yard and stopped the Trojans first scoring opportunity after the Duck's fumble of the opening kickoff. I'd prefer this sort of play on a second down and medium type of situation where there is no easy way to guess run. On 4th and short I always to prefer to run north / south and not east / west. (Of course if it had worked and USC won the game I'd think it was a great play). For the game USC was 3 of 4 on 4th down conversions for 75%. Joe McKnight Jet Sweep (4th and 1 play)
Joe McKnight Run (Holding Penalty Wipes out TD)
I don't know if McKnight would have gotten through the hole without the Radovich holding penalty. The behind viewing angle would be better for that information. If stopped it would have been for a short gain a possible third down conversion. Instead USC was put into a 2nd and 18 play and then Sanchez was sacked for an 8 yard loss on an obvious passing situation. Then on 3rd and 26 USC gained back 11 yards and it was time to punt. A key momentum changing opportunity in the game was lost here. The other running play that had a major impact on the game was the unfortunate fumble in the 3rd quarter by Stanley Havili on the Trojan's 16 yard line. This game Oregon a very short field to work with and they wasted no time in scoring a touchdown to convert. Lesson number one is to take care of the ball on your own side of the field. Of such small details close games are won and lost. Stanley Havili Fumble
Offensive by Downs & Run versus Pass
I expected to USC run more on first down this game but it was mixed about 50/50 most of the game. Then in the 4th quarter there were of course more passes on first down to skew the total towards passing. In terms of what was successful or not by down and distance you can get a sense from the following table where USC struggled. In general USC did not do well on second down plays in either the run or pass department. First down plays late in the game and 3rd down passing is where the majority of the passing yards originated.
By situation the offense maps out like this. Since USC trailed they had to resort to passing late in the game. This lead to some yardage but also eventually lead to an interception to seal the victory for Oregon. USC Offense by Situation
Other Notes & Reflections: After a week of optimism following the Notre Dame game I am now back to concern about the USC offense in several respects. Here are three things off the top of my head. #1 The current USC Trojan team is not good enough on offense to overcome turnovers and penalties like it might have in the past. The three turnovers and eight total penalties in this game were too large for USC to overcome on the road versus a tough opponent. If this happens again another loss or even two is easily possible. #2 This team was at its best on offense this season when able to establish the run early and not be forced to rely upon the passing game to carry the day. The easier wins have come when the run game worked effectively. A good run game always helps the passing game by pulling defenders forward and not cheating into passing lanes. That ability will be key to re-establish moving forward. #3 The passing game is of some concern as well and I can't help but think that the WR route running skills and ability to get open is just not developing as much as hoped. There appears to be a lot of work left in this area although Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton had nice games in receptions and yardage. Also on the positive side David Ausberry caught his first touchdown of the season. The big unknown factor of course is who starts at QB next week and if it is John David Booty is there any lingering damage to his finger or rust to be worked out. Next week USC faces Oregon State a team that could easily give them trouble at home just like the loss last year up in Corvallis. Oregon State has the top rush defense in the nation and also ranks #1 in sacks as well. If both of those areas on defense are working versus USC then I suspect it will be another tough game at home. We'll just have to wait and see how the team responds to the adversity next week and the remainder of the season. |
