Date - November 10, 2007
Location - Berkeley, Ca.
Result - USC 24 - Cal 17
Here are some updates on the 2007 edition of the USC defense after the Cal game. Since I am overseas and have no video to manipulate there are no pictures this week. I'll go back and add some once I get home on the weekend. In the mean time we can look and see how the unit is doing overall as well as highlight a couple of data points from the Cal game.
(Note: The following data is all from the NCAA's CFB web site for Division I football statistics and the 2007 defense figures are all year to date numbers as of today. The all time leading performances for the Pete Carroll era are highlighted in black for completed seasons. To the right is a column with the current team's NCAA rank so you can see where it is relatively strong and were it ranks relatively weak.)
| Category |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007
YTD |
NCAA Rank |
| Rush Yards Per Game |
83.2 |
60.2 |
79.4 |
130.5 |
91.1 |
92.2 |
#9 |
| Rush Yards Per Carry |
2.8 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
#9 |
| Pass Yards Per Game |
201.8 |
276.2 |
199.9 |
230.4 |
204.7 |
175.7 |
#7 |
| Pass Yards Per Completion |
11.6 |
11.5 |
10.6 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
9.5 |
N/A* |
| Pass Completion % Allowed |
49.8% |
55.0% |
53.8% |
59.7% |
54.6% |
52.8% |
N/A* |
| Total Yardage Defense |
284.9 |
336.4 |
279.3 |
360.9 |
295.8 |
267.9 |
#3 |
| Scoring Defense |
18.5 |
18.4 |
13.0 |
22.8 |
15.2 |
16.0 |
#5 |
| Sacks |
43 |
55 |
50 |
32 |
35 |
30 (39) |
#15 |
| Tackles For Loss |
96 |
126 |
120 |
73 |
87 |
67 (87) |
#36 |
| Fumbles Recovered |
19 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
10 (13) |
#34 |
| Interceptions |
17 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
11 |
9 (12) |
#79 |
| 3rd Down Defense % |
27.6% |
38.8% |
28.0% |
36.5% |
38.7% |
32.7% |
#17 |
Note: Figures inside ( ) indicate simple projections over a 13 game season.
The Trojan rush defense dropped off from last week and allowed an alarming 200 yards on 45 carries versus Cal. Poor tackling was evident on several plays. YTD to average yards allowed is now at 92.2 yards per game and ranks #9 in the country a drop off of two spots.
Pass yardage defense is now at 175.7 yards surrendered per game. Cal's QB threw for 199 yards this past week and completed just 13 of 29 attempts. For once USC also intercepted a couple of passes but also dropped one or two more chances it appeared on replays.
Total yardage defense is now at 267.9 yards per game year to date and still ranks third in the country. That total yardage level is still right around the lowest mark of the Pete Carroll era should it hold up the rest of the season.
USC had only one sack and five TFL's in the game probably due to the conditions which affected footing. I hope to see those spike upwards again versus Arizona State. The squad also is allowing 16 points per game which now ranks 5th in the country.
How Cal Scored
Here is a quick breakdown of how Cal scored. The Bears put up 17 points in the game
| Drive
Starting Point |
Points
|
Comment |
| Long field scoring drives |
10 |
One long
TD drive of 73 yards and one long FG drive of 86 yards |
| Short field scoring drives |
7 |
One
short 46 yard TD after gaining field position on an exchange of punts. |
| Scores
by the defense or special teams |
0 |
N/A |
| Totals |
17 |
USC Base Defense Schemes / Cal Formation
Longshore used the Shotgun on perhaps half of his snaps. Cal is a threat to run or pass from this formation but fortunately the QB is just not a major threat on the zone option read that other QB's are. With Mike Dunbar now gone as offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford is back to using more of his normal formations and I'd put 80% or so in the basic I Formation, 2 TE sets, and 3 WR sets. Often he kept in a back or a TE for protection and sometimes both. (Note: Insert pictures later).
Up front USC stayed in a base under front most of the game it seemed on the defensive line. There were a few blitzes but I did not count the total yet. In the secondary it appeared there was a lot more going on this week. Some Cover 1 man under schemes, some Cover 2 zone coverage with bracketing of DeSean Jackson, and some mix of what I thought was pattern read where responsibility seemed to vary depending upon the release of the #2 WR? Hard to tell on a 2" screen without ability to rewind and freeze frames, etc.
USC Rush Defense
The USC rush defense had an off night versus Cal as 200 yards were allowed on 45 carries. Must of that was racked up by Justin Forsett breaking arm tackles and players not just wrapping up. Here is the histogram of Cal's runs and you can see the spike of eight big runs to the right. Eliminating the poor tackling and mistakes on these 8 runs will be key as they accounted for 129 of the 200 rushing yards in the game for Cal. The other 37 carries allowed just 71 yards or under 2 yards per carry on average.
Big Run Plays Allowed
When time allows I'll put up some pictures of 2 or 3 of the bigger mistakes on rush defense. Cal had big run plays of 10, 11, 12, 12, 17, 17, 22, and 23 yards in the game mostly by Forsett. Year to date you can see below that this game was the worst so far on rush defense. Stopping similar mistakes and poor tackling will be key versus Arizona State.
USC Pass Defense
The USC pass defense did fairly well limiting Longshore to just 13 of 29 passing and also did make 2 interceptions. Cal generated 199 yards through the air with a 15 yard per completion average. As you can see in the pass histogram below USC did give up a quite a few big plays on pass defense. Half of Longshore's completions were for gains of more than 15 yards. Pass plays of 16, 16, 17, 20, 20, 34, and 40 yards were allowed. Fortunately for the most part the unit stiffened however and did a good job of keeping the Cal offense in check. Longshore also just seemed to mis-fire on a lot of fairly easy throws. The weather elements may have had something of course to do with those results of course. (Note: Insert pictures later)
For a year to date look at the Trojan pass defense here are the yards and pass completion percentages allowed. Overall it has been pretty steady except for the 389 yards put up by Sam Keller of Nebraska in week two. That is also the game where USC blitzed the most this season.
USC Interceptions
USC did have a minor breakout with two interceptions in the contest one each by Terrell Thomas and by Kevin Ellison. (Note: Insert pictures later)
Sacks & TFL's Trend
Here is one last trend chart for the season. USC had one sack in the game on a corner blitz by Terrell Thomas. Also there were five tackles for loss by the Trojans on defense. These figures were both below season averages and disappointing after the sudden surge versus Oregon State. Against ASU much better pressure will be necessary or their offense may get into high gear at home. With drier conditions and an extra few days to game plan the defense I'm looking for an uptick in performance here again.
Other Notes and Reflections
After a stellar defensive effort versus Oregon State this game was sort of average to below average performance for the Trojans. The weather had a lot to do with it I suspect but suddenly allowing 200 yards rushing is not a good sign. That can't be repeated versus Arizona State. Rudy Carpenter their QB has a pretty severely sprained thumb and came out at the end of the UCLA game only to come back in at the tail end in pain to finish the game. I suspect it will heal enough for him to play on November 22nd since the season and possibly the Rose Bowl berth will be on the line. Still it might be a factor either mentally or physically.
The Sun Devils on average currently rush for 164.6 yards per game to rank 48th in the country. They also rank 34th in passing with 261.9 yards per game for a pretty balanced attack. The key will be to make them more one dimensional by stopping the run and forcing them to get into obvious passing situations. Against UCLA which has a similar rush defense ranking to USC the Sun Devils gained 152 net yards rushing and 200 yards passing. In other games Arizona State has shown some real explosion on offense however with 523 yards versus Washington and 489 yards versus Oregon. USC will need a sharper performance on defense with better tackling and more pressure on the QB in Tempe than the results we just saw at Cal if they want to keep this late season roll going forward. I'm optimistic about the outcome but it will probably come down to stopping the run, generating a few turnovers, and perhaps a big play on special teams. There are no direct scores yet this season by the defense or special teams that I can recall? In 2003 the defense and special teams scored ten total times that season for 70 points or just under a touchdown per game. This would be a nice game for a breakthrough on that front by the 2007 squad.