As you can see in the above charts the rushing figures did indeed rebounded nicely in 2007. The 2007 squad attained the second highest level of rushing yardage for the past seven years averaging 197.2 yards per game and ranking 27th in the country. In terms of yards per carry the overall trend (see charts below) followed the same general curve as above to rank as the second best mark of the Pete Carroll era.  Next season the offensive line must replace Sam Baker, Drew Radovich, Matt Spanos, and Chilo Rachal. That loss will no doubt take some time and effort to duplicate. Pat Ruel has one lone returning starter in LG Jeff Byers. Fortunately highly touted replacements are in development in the form of center Kristofer O'Dowd (who saw several games of action as a true freshman at center), RT Charles Brown, and LT Butch Lewis. Those four are the most probable starters next season pending the outcome of spring and summer practice. Right guard likely will be a position battle to watch in spring between Thomas Herring and Zack Herberer as well as some other players. Of course there are always a few surprise developments, position shifts, and injuries so this area will be one to focus on in 2008.



From a backfield player point of view here were the leading rushers for USC in 2007. A very talented cast of tailbacks return in addition to the all important fullback Stanley Havili. Departing are Chauncey Washington, Desmond Reed, Hershel Dennis, and Jody Adewale.

RUSHING              GP  Att Gain Loss  Net   Avg  TD Long Avg/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
Washington, C.       12  195  992   23  969   5.0  10   53  80.8
Johnson, Stafon      11   98  689   16  673   6.9   5   63  61.2
McKnight, Joe        13   94  610   70  540   5.7   3   65  41.5
Gable, C.J.           3   13  143    0  143  11.0   0   40  47.7
Havili, Stanley      13   21  134    0  134   6.4   2   50  10.3
Dennis, Hershel      11   23   95    6   89   3.9   1   19   8.1
Reed, Desmond        13    8   42    1   41   5.1   0   12   3.2
Johnson, Ronald      13    4   27    0   27   6.8   0    9   2.1
Bradford, Allen      12   15   38   14   24   1.6   1    6   2.0
Sanchez, Mark         8   14   42   20   22   1.6   0   11   2.8
Adewale, Jody         6    1   17    0   17  17.0   0   17   2.8
Hazelton, Vidal      13    1   12    0   12  12.0   0   12   0.9
Team                 11    6    0   10  -10  -1.7   0    0  -0.9
McDonald, M.         13    1    0   11  -11 -11.0   0    0  -0.8
Booty, J.D.          10   23   17  123 -106  -4.6   1    9 -10.6
Total..........      13  517 2858  294 2564   5.0  23   65 197.2

USC Passing Offense Related


Unfortunately on a much less positive note is the performance of the USC passing game in 2007. The drop off was considerable compared to previous years in terms of total yards, yards per game, yards per attempt, and yards per completion.




As you can see from the trend charts 2007 was the weakest passing year for USC since 2001 and Carson Palmer's junior season. Much was expected in the passing game for USC in 2007 mainly due to the return of senior QB John David Booty. However the real story in hindsight was the non-return of gifted starters Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, and dependable reserves like Chris McFoy. Fred Davis of course had an outstanding year catching passes from the tight end spot which we'll highlight below. However wide receiver play was spotty during the season with less than stellar route running at times. In addition multiple dropped passes were evident each game.

Here is the trend chart for completions and interceptions. As you can see it only varies slightly but it only takes 2 or 3 interceptions or incomplete passes at the wrong moments to wreck a season as USC has found out the past couple of years.

On both a yards per attempt and yards per completion basis the passing game hit new lows for the Pete Carroll era in 2007. Much like the running game was broken in 2006 the attention now shifts to what a new starting QB can do in 2008 and how well the receivers will develop with another year in the system under their belt.  Normally the "blame" is quickly placed upon coaches and players when performance falls off but that alone does not necessarily explain the root cause "why" something occurred. In the passing game for USC I do suspect that the young WR's did not improve in their route running and ability to get open as much as anticipated this season. However I have a hunch another important factor emerged that is less discussed regarding the opposition. 2007 saw the emergence of Cover 4 as the primary secondary coverage for at least three teams in the Pac 10 (UCLA, Arizona State, & Washington State) as their base scheme. Other teams played it in situational packages as well. This coverage scheme is designed at forcing shorter underneath throws sideways to the flats and taking away the deeper routes in the passing game. (Sample game picture click here. Sample scheme diagram click here). This coverage was developed in the NFL to specifically combat down field passing attacks and the threat of "3 verticals". Cover 4 aka "Quarters" coverage (and its 1/4, 1/4, 1/2 Quarter Quarter Half variant) normally allows a higher degree of double teams on deeper passes. The spread of this full time defense and part time usage to the college level just may be something that USC has to simply deal with for the next couple of seasons. If we are lucky some information will spill out in the off season in the form of either coaching manuals, clinics, or DVD's. For now I am just speculating about its effect but will keep looking for further information.

PASSING              GP   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct  Yds  TD Lng Avg/G
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Booty, J.D.          10  138.01 215-340-10   63.2 2361  23  63 236.1
Sanchez, Mark         8  123.23  69-114-5    60.5  695   7  48  86.9
Green, Garrett       13  715.60    1-1-0    100.0   34   1  34   2.6
Total..........      13  133.88 286-460-16   62.2 3090  31  63 237.7

RECEIVER             GP  No.  Yds   Avg  TD Long Avg/G
------------------------------------------------------
Davis, Fred          13   62  881  14.2   8   63  67.8
Hazelton, Vidal      13   50  540  10.8   4   48  41.5
Turner, Patrick      11   48  569  11.9   3   31  51.7
Havili, Stanley      13   34  248   7.3   5   35  19.1
Ausberry, David      13   26  240   9.2   2   21  18.5
McKnight, Joe        13   23  203   8.8   1   32  15.6
Reed, Desmond        13    9  107  11.9   1   34   8.2
Johnson, Ronald      13    7  110  15.7   1   47   8.5
Washington, C.       12    7   59   8.4   2   26   4.9
Walker, Brad         12    6   55   9.2   0   18   4.6
Johnson, Stafon      11    4   15   3.8   0    9   1.4
Bradford, Allen      12    3   23   7.7   2   11   1.9
McCoy, Anthony       13    2   18   9.0   1   16   1.4
Dennis, Hershel      11    2    5   2.5   0    3   0.5
Thompson, Dale       13    1    9   9.0   0    9   0.7
Gable, C.J.           3    1    8   8.0   1    8   2.7
Patterson, T.         3    1    0   0.0   0    0   0.0
Total..........      13  286 3090  10.8  31   63 237.7

On a positive note TE Fred Davis had a stellar year and was presented the John Mackey Award as the top TE in the nation. Stanley Havili also had a good year with 34 receptions out of the backfield.  Plenty of talent and depth returns at wide receiver in 2008 with Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazelton, David Ausberry, and Ronald Johnson all returning. Brandon Carswell Travon Patterson, and Damian Williams will all make a push for some playing time as well. This position will be an overall area to watch in spring and fall practice. Without major improvements in the passing game however I doubt that USC will be able to contend for a national championship next season.  At TE Anthony McCoy will be expected to step forward and start to replace the big shoes of Fred Davis.

WR Distributions Trend

Here is the breakdown passing distribution by position. This season came out just like the 2004 distribution did in terms of percentage by position. The number of receptions by the fullbacks and tailbacks made a nice recovery from last year mainly due to the health and availability of Stanley Havili this year.




Receptions Concentration Trend

In terms of concentration regardless of position here is how the season finished up. The top 3 receivers (Davis, Hazelton, and Turner) caught 55.9% of the passes overall this year which is lower than most seasons. The top 6 receivers caught 85% of the passes or roughly about the same level as last season.

USC Total Offense Trend

Total offense for USC felt like it took a bump upwards in 2007 compared to last year and from a straight aggregate data point of view it certainly did. As you can see from the trend figures below the 2007 totals were roughly in line with the 2002, 2003, and 2004 seasons.



The aggregate data displayed above is misleading however in a couple of dimensions worth reviewing. 2006 as you probably recall was penalized by virtue of a shorter game that season as the NCAA changed the time clock rules in an attempt to shorten broadcast time and game length. After an uproar the rules were rescinded after one season. Most teams estimated that their offensive production fell anywhere from 10-15% as a result in 2006. For USC the effect was roughly the following in terms of fewer plays and drives...



I estimate about seven fewer plays for USC in 2006 compared to the other years in the Pete Carroll era. The average yards per play in 2006 was 5.9 so in reality that season was "cheated" of over 40 yards of offense in hindsight just due to a shorter game. Of course so was every other program in the nation so it does not matter for that season when comparing teams within 2006. However it causes a problem when comparing USC data across the years however for the one year in question. Adjusting for that effect produces the following result for those curious (of course the official figure is the lower total above). I'll also show the average per game yardage in 2007 below for when starting QB John David Booty was the starting quarterback.



As mentioned above I calculated the average yards per game for just the 10 starts when John David Booty was healthy this season. In those 10 games USC average 453.8 yards or the second best mark of the Pete Carroll era - again of course the official overall stats are the first figures listed above. These are merely for conjecture and comparison. Amazingly 2007 was the first time in the Pete Carroll era was a starting QB was injured and missed several games. It is probably a tribute to the offensive line that such an injury did not happen in previous years. USC was certainly blessed with health at the QB spot in 2001 to 2006. Let's hope that 2008 marks a return to that string of good luck and QB protection.

Yards Per Play

Since total yards are a somewhat flawed way to look at the USC offense overall I also calculated it in a couple of different ways for comparison. First here is the offense just expressed in terms of yards per play. As you can see the offense in 2006 and 2007 was less effective than previous years by about a half yard per play (excepting 2001 and 2005 of course). The running game was strong in 2007 as noted above so in reality this was the effect of the lower passing game in 2007. When John David Booty was healthy the figure was right at 6.0 yards per play which would exceed 2002 and come closer to the 2003 and 2004 levels. That small half yard difference per play is of course due to multiple factors including a) player ability, b) execution of the play, c) strength of the opponent, and d) of course the nature of the play call by the coaches among other things. A few more big plays in the passing game and this gap will perhaps disappear in 2008 if other injuries do not appear (knock on wood).

Yards Per Drive

Instead of yards per individual play another way to slice the data is average yards per drive. The reason why I look at the data this way is because a team may gain a half a yard per play less but still move the chains on average quite well if they are consistent and convert on 3rd downs (which I will highlight further below). In order to calculate yards per drive it is a simple matter of taking the total yards for each season and dividing it by the total number of offensive drives for the team that year. For the totals below I used the NCAA records for total yardage and divided it by the overall number of drives by the offense for the season. (Note: I took out zero play scoring drives by the defense but left in all the one play kneel downs on offense that sometimes ended the half for each season). As you can see from below that total has not varied much for USC over the past several years except for 2005. (Note: 2001 which is not included would be much lower of course).




3rd Down Conversion / 4th Down Conversion

Putting yardage aside for the moment here is just the 3rd down and 4th down conversion percentages for the USC offense the past several years. As you can see the figures have been very consistent for USC in each season. The obvious high point was the 55.1% attained in 2005 by that talented offense. In comparison 2007 came in just ahead of 2004 in terms of 3rd down conversion which is quite amazing considering all the dropped passes that ended scoring drives this past year. Amazingly the 3rd down conversion performance for both 2006 and 2007 out performs the levels of the 2003 and 2004 squads which lost fewer games. 4th down conversion is generally on an upward trend as well. Keep in mind though that while there are normally 150 to 200 or so 3rd down plays per year there are usually only 15 to 20 fourth down plays hence the effect of just a couple of plays makes a big difference in that data set in terms of percentage.

SOS Check

On last area that deserves a quick check is the annual Strength of Schedule component. This year the schedule was expected to be among the toughest in the nation. However due to relatively poor showings by Notre Dame and Nebraska that reality did not occur. The ranking wound up closer to the 2003 SOS that it did to the 2002 or 2004 squads. Here is the overall summary for those interested.